A new model of China EV recycling says the country could eventually make recycled batteries and motors a major input for new electric vehicles. The study, led by Xin Xiong at Nanjing University and published in Joule, finds that recycled material could cover large shares of future Chinese manufacturing demand for several battery and motor elements over the coming decades.
The conclusion is not a vibes-based circular economy poster. The researchers modeled China’s EV material flows from 2010 through 2050, comparing the amount of material coming back from retired vehicles and replacement batteries with the amount needed to build new vehicles in the same year.
The team included materials used in batteries for hybrid, battery-electric and fuel-cell vehicles: lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, phosphorus, sodium, sulfur and graphite. It also modeled motor-related elements including copper, neodymium, dysprosium, samarium and cerium.
How much EV material could China recycle into new vehicles?
The study’s answer depends on the chemistry that wins and how well China collects and processes old batteries. Across the scenarios, the share of manufacturing demand supplied by recycling generally rises as earlier waves of EV sales later become a growing stream of scrapped vehicles and used batteries.
The researchers tested four technology paths. Some assume a slower shift toward options such as solid-state lithium batteries, sodium batteries and motors that use fewer rare earth elements. Other scenarios move faster into newer chemistries. The model’s key measure is “circularity potential,” meaning the portion of that year’s manufacturing demand that recycled material could satisfy.
Policy assumptions matter. The study accounts for Chinese rules intended to raise recycling rates for selected battery elements from about 40 percent to at least 98 percent, and policies aimed at increasing EVs’ share of new vehicle sales from 45 percent to 60 percent by 2030.
The model has battery-electric vehicle sales rising through 2050, while hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles decline over time. It also assumes battery replacement becomes common, especially in commercial vehicles that wear down packs before the vehicle itself is retired. China’s battery-swapping stations add another route for batteries to enter manufacturing, use and recycling cycles.
Battery chemistry decides what recycling is worth
The numbers change sharply by element. The researchers found that cobalt demand could fall if manufacturers move toward low-cobalt battery chemistries, allowing recycled cobalt supply to overtake demand. Nickel and manganese could go the other way: if battery designs require much more of them, recycling’s share of demand may stay relatively flat despite more material coming back.
Motor materials show the same sensitivity. The study says demand for rare earth elements depends on which motor designs take hold, including whether cerium is used to replace more expensive rare earths.
That is the annoying but useful part of the model: recycling does not solve “EV materials” as one blob. It helps some supply chains more than others, and it can be weakened by the same innovation that makes batteries cheaper.
The researchers point to graphite as a current example. Because graphite has relatively low value, it is often not recovered from batteries now. Sodium batteries could create a similar tension, according to the study: cheaper materials can reduce battery costs while also giving recyclers less economic reason to extract them.
What has to work for the model to hold?
The study says China would need a much stronger recycling chain to reach the higher estimates. The researchers cite regulations requiring battery passports, which identify batteries and their chemical makeup, and efforts to push more discarded batteries toward officially licensed recyclers.
They also note gaps. China has not mandated minimum recycled content in new battery production, according to the study. The researchers warn that collection, sorting and processing could develop bottlenecks as the number of electric vehicles reaching end of life grows.
The paper’s less tidy finding is the useful one. EV recycling can reduce dependence on mining for some materials, but only if policy, chemistry and industrial plumbing line up. Otherwise, old EVs become a pile of valuable atoms that arrive in the wrong form, at the wrong time, or through the wrong recycler.
This story draws on original reporting from Ars Technica.
